‘No snow’ show
in the Himalayas
Pankaj
Chaturvedi
Kashmir, proverbial
heaven on earth, is replete with natural beauty and greenery. The livelihoods
of its residents depend largely on the winter season. 40 out of this season of
70 days, from 21 December 21 to 31 January, is referred to as “Chilla-e-Kalan”,
when the atmospheric temperature is usually several degrees below zero. The
subsequent period of nearly 20 days—31 January to 20 February—is called
“Chilla-e-Khurd” i.e. the short winter. The period from 20 February to 2 March is
called “Chilla-e-Bachha” or the minor winter.
This year, after 25
days of Chilla-e-Kalan, Kashmiris are worried. On 15 January, the water level
in the Jhelum River, lifeline of Kashmir, hit its lowest in history—flowing at
0.75 feet at Anantnag and 0.86 feet at Asham. On a day when the temperature in
Delhi was 3.5 degrees, the mercury in Jammu was 10.8 degrees: 7.1 degrees <above>
normal. The maximum temperature in Pahalgam, a favourite tourist destination
for its snowfall and snow games, was 14.1, while in Srinagar it was 13.6 degrees
Celsius. There are many districts in Kashmir where temperatures dip below zero
at night, while going above 10 degrees during the day.
That explains why,
this year, there is no snow on the skiing grounds of Gulmarg. And why only dry
grass can be seen in areas where white sheets of snow used to lie several feet
high this time of the year.
Zojila Pass,
situated at an altitude of about 11,800 feet, connects Ladakh to Kashmir. In
the last week of December, it usually witnesses 30 to 40 feet of snow. This
year, well past mid-January, there is barely six to seven feet of snow to be
seen. There has been no snowfall in most of the state due to which the drinking
water crisis is all-too evident. The government may show tourist figures as its
prime achievement, but the reality is that amid the glittering advertisements,
local people are worried about the harm done to farming and horticulture, and the
lack of fodder for cattle.
Kashmir is not
alone in worrying over the absence of snow and the change in weather patterns.
All the Himalayan regions in the country are facing a similar crisis. In
Himachal Pradesh, the Kangra Valley is experiencing drought after 17 years.
Snow is missing from the mountains which are usually snowcapped this month. In
January, snow is missing from the Dhauladhar mountain range above the lush
green Kangra Valley. The days are as sunny as summer but the mornings and
evenings are quite cold. A similar situation has arisen in Shimla. Even in
Himachal Pradesh’s neighbouring state, Uttarakhand, the situation is not
normal. The hope of snowfall has thus far kept tourists waiting in Mussoorie. They
waited in vain. There was not a single flake of snow in the last months of
2023. Not even as 2024 began.
Famous for winter
sports and skiing, Auli and its surrounding hills appear desolate without snow.
Winter sports could not be held. The ropeway from Joshimath to Auli has been
closed. Troubled by the lack, local people and hotel owners have taken to praying
to Lata Bhagwati and Lord Vishwakarma for snowfall.
Box
According to data, Shimla received the following amount of snowfall in the
last few years:
Year Snow in
Centimetres
2010-11 31.5
2011-12 119.4
2012-13 92.8
2013-14 76.0
2014-15 83.8
2015-16 25.0
2016-17 106.5
2017–18 20.8
2018–19 128.8
2019-20 198.7
2020-21 67.0
2021-22 161.7
2022-23 6.0
(Lowest till
date)
Where has all the
snow gone?
Scientists at the
India Meteorological Department (IMD) say that a weak western disturbance this
year has resulted in the absence of significant snowfall and/ or rainfall in
the mountains and/ or plains. The reason for its weakness is said to be the
prevalence of El Nino and other meteorological conditions. It is not that
western disturbances are not getting created but they are passing over the northern
Himalayas. This is why there is no possibility of snowfall and rain on the
Indian side of the great mountains.
According to a
study, ‘Western Disturbances: A Review’, published in the International Journal
of Geophysics in April 2015, snowfall in December, January and February creates
snow accumulation on the mountains which is important for India’s water resources.
Water in the north Indian rivers comes only from snow melt. This El Nino effect
is natural. This time, though, the El Nino pattern is somewhat different.
Global warming may be one of the reasons behind it. This had happened in 2009
when it had caused a drought in the country.
We must keep in the
mind that mountains are extremely sensitive to climate change. Lack of
traditional forests, cutting of mountains and excessive population have intensified
the change in weather patterns in these areas.
Warnings disappear in the red bag
In 2010, the IAS Academy at Mussoorie
had stated in a research paper that resources in Mussoorie had hit their peak
capacity. The population of this hill station is only 30,000, out of which
almost 8,000 people live in houses that face the threat of landslides. The arrival
of about five lakh people every year in such a small place causes an excessive
burden on water, electricity and sewerage systems.
In a workshop on the challenge of
development in Himalayan cities organised by the Department of Urban
Development at Uttarakhand Administration Academy (ATI) on 6 April 6 2023, Dr.
Vikram Gupta, senior scientist at Wadia Institute, Dehradun, said that a study
conducted in the last four years under the Indo–Norway Project had concluded
that the load carrying capacity of Nainital, Mussoorie, Shimla and other hill
stations had been exhausted long ago.
The report ‘Environmental Assessment of
Tourism in the Indian Himalayan Region’ released by the Govind Ballabh Pant
National Institute of Himalayan Environment (GBNIHE) in June 2022, stated in
strong words that increasing tourism in the Himalayan region had increased
pressure on hill stations. Besides this, the change of land use is a big
problem in itself. The increased destruction of forests has a huge impact on
the ecosystem of this region. The report had also pointed out the destruction
of wildlife habitats and the adverse impact on biodiversity due to tourist
vehicles and roads being built in Himachal Pradesh. The report was sent to the
Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC) on the orders
of the National Green Tribunal (NGT), to no avail.
Sensitive mountains of Himachal
The Himalayan region in India is spread
over 13 states and union territories (viz. Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh,
Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram,
Nagaland, Sikkim, Tripura, Assam and West Bengal). The end-to-end length of
this mountainous ‘Crown of India’ region is approximately 2,500 kilometres.
About five crore people have been living in the lap of the snowcapped mountain
ranges for centuries. The rivers that provide water to most of India originate
in this region. The glaciers here control the warming of our planet. That is
why it is the most sensitive region from the point of view of climate change.
The mountains in the Uttarakhand region
are among the entities most affected by climate change. About 12,000 natural
watersheds and aquifers in the mountains, where eternal rivers like the Ganga
and Yamuna originate, have either dried up or are on the verge of drying up.
Manali
turning into a drain
A study conducted in Manali, Himachal
Pradesh, showed that the built-up area there had increased from 4.7 per cent in
1989 to 15.7 per cent in 2012. Today, this figure has exceeded 25 per cent.
Similarly, between 1980 and 2023, a shocking increase of 5,600 per cent has
been recorded in the number of tourists in Manali. This has directly impacted
the ecosystem of this area. With the number of hotels increasing in the area,
the demand for drinking water and the burden of disposal of dirty water has
also gone up. Today, Manali is on the verge of sinking.
What happens if there is no snow?
For tourists, cold weather and snow are
a matter of joy, but for those living in the Himalayan region, this snow is a
matter of life and death. In Uttarakhand, the weather remains dry due to lack
of snowfall and rains above Mussoorie. Crops are dying due to lack of rain and
frost. Farmers in Chakrata depend on cash crops like ginger, tomato, garlic and
peas. All these crops are in dire straits for want of water. With the lack of
snow in the hilly areas, farmers growing apples, peaches and apricots have been
praying for rain as their only hope. Remember, snowfall is also essential for
apples and saffron in, and from, Kashmir.
Agriculture is at the core of the Indian
economy and farming cannot happen without irrigation. For irrigation, it is
essential that the water flow in the rivers remains uninterrupted. The
responsibility of releasing water to the rivers lies with those ice mountains
which gradually melt in summers. It is clear that in the coming days, there
will be a water crisis not only in Kashmir or Himachal, but in the entire
country. A water crisis brings with it agricultural losses, lack of employment,
inflation and migration. It has to be understood that increasing migration
towards big cities and resultant urban slums are the biggest visible results of
climate change.
What should be done
We must understand that the Western
Disturbance, or El Nino, is not new a phenomenon affecting climate change. We
have been turning our back on those factors that have made the situation lethal.
A closer look reveals that whenever and wherever crowds increase in the name of
tourism, the environmental balance gets disturbed. With no measures to check
it, this imbalance deepens. Secondly, the increased use of concrete in the
mountains leads to higher temperatures. The destruction of mountains and
forests for roads or construction projects are reasons which even children
understand, but no one does anything about it because of skewed perceptions of
development.
What is ‘El Nino’
The mysteries of changes in weather are still unsolved.
The kind of weather we can expect depends on the effect of ‘El Nino’ or ‘La
Nina’. In the year 1600, fishermen off the coast of western Peru noticed an
unusually high rise in sea levels around Christmas. This seasonal change was
defined by the Spanish word ‘El Nino’, which means ‘little child’ or ‘baby Jesus’.
El Nino is actually a rise in the temperature of the central and east-central
equatorial sea surface at regular intervals, while La Nina is its opposite,
i.e. a seasonal phenomenon of lowering of temperature on sea surfaces. La Nina,
too, is a Spanish word, which means ‘little girl’.
The biggest reasons for change in weather from South
America to India are the El Nino and La Nina effects. El Nino is related to
heat and drought in India and Australia, while La Nina is the carrier of good
monsoons and can be called a boon for India. Although it may affect India, El
Nino and La Nina events occur off the coast of Peru (Eastern Pacific) and the
east coast of Australia (Western Pacific). Winds carry these effects across the
globe. It is important to know that sunrays fall straight on the equator. In
this area, the sun is visible for 12 hours, thus the heat remains on the earth’s surface for
a longer period. This causes higher temperatures in the Mediterranean region or
the Central Pacific region which affects the temperature of the sea surface. Under
normal conditions, Mediterranean winds blow from east to west and carry warm
sea water towards the eastern seaboard of Australia. The heated water forms
steam that forms clouds, resulting in good rainfall along the east coast. When
hot winds laden with moisture rise up, their moisture is removed and they cool
down. Then, the cold winds of the troposphere moving from west to east come
down to the coast of Peru and its surroundings. These collide with the hot
winds rising from the sea of Australia. The cyclone thus formed is called the ‘Walker
Cyclone’, named after Sir Gilbert Walker who discovered the phenomenon.
In El Nino conditions, westerly winds become weak and
warm sea water returns and collects along the coasts of Peru. This causes a
rise of up to 90 cm in sea levels there, which, in turn, results in evaporation
and the formation of rain clouds. While this causes heavy rains in Peru, due to
its adverse effect on monsoon winds, there is drought from Australia to India.
During the La Nina effect, strong winds, generally
blowing from east to west in the Mediterranean region, push the warm waters off
the coast of Peru towards Australia. This causes the water level on the
Peruvian coast to drop significantly, with cold water from the ocean depths replacing
some of the warmer water. This is the time when Peruvian fishermen earn a lot.
_ENDS_
